Convergence Blindness

Check out these articles:

As telecom industry evolves, success of Netflix is its biggest threat

Move Over, Apple! My Tablet Cost $200

So WTF do these two articles have do to with one another? Good question! Thought you'd never ask.

"Much of the telecom industry thinks that in a few years, people will watch TV and movies and surf the Web all with the same gear." (from the Netflix article) "The second observation is that these tablets are probably going to become cheap, near-commodity items, and maybe sooner than you think." (from the Tablet Cost $200 article) Still confused? At issue is the hedging of both journalists on where things are going... and where things sit right now. Now let's add a dose of, "It's really tough to compete against free," he said [Frank Pearce, co-founder of World of Warcraft developer Blizzard] at GDC. "No matter what level of quality you hit, there are a lot of people who are willing to sacrifice that for a cheaper version...The industry is changing in terms of the business model." (from Nintendo facing industry backlash over controversial comments).

"Tough to compete against free"... ya think? Welcome to the messy world of the Post-Convergence Age. Out there in the tech world is the dream of Toaster Tech, infoTech that works like (as reliably, as easily) a toaster. But where the Toaster Tech dream diverges from the metaphor is that infoTech/netspace "nodes" will never be single-purpose tech like a toaster but more like netspace Swiss Army knives. Special purpose devices, like toasters, are also walled-garden tech in the sense that purpose/function/use is isolated enough for to-purpose business models to be created. Telephone was once entirely walled-garden. Television was once entirely walled-garden. ISP/datacom services were once walled-garden. Cell/mobile services were once entirely walled-garden. "...in a few years [!!!], people will watch TV and movies and surf the Web all with the same gear". Really? 'Cause I can do that right this [expletive deleted] instant on just about every device in the house (media center computer, other computers, pads, smartphones, game consoles) and do it every day of the week. Them thar walls around the garden appear to have fallen down already, guy.

The real question is a Double-Rainbow moment: "What does it mean?????"

It means that everything that can be represented in little old ones and zeros has been, and is available for consumption to some degree out there in netspace on every current device category we've created which can participate in netspace. Period. Turn the page. I'm not saying there aren't tech hurdles, lots of legal wrangling, and many obituaries to be written for companies that aren't on the cluetrain yet. And I definitely "get" the fact that pioneering in the Internet/Web space encouraged folks to pick the low fruit from the tree of marketing ideas by offering so much for little or nothing. Monetization is hard in netspace because we're all very spoiled by everything becoming a commodity with a value near $0.00... at the consumer end of the marketplace equation. The more accurate Netflix article quote would look something like this: "The telecom and old media industries believe that in a few years they will finally realize that people are already watching TV and movies, and surfing the Web on the same gear. In the meantime, telecom and old media will continue to pretend that walled-garden business models are King Schmitt on Krapp Hill, thus becoming textbook fodder for MBA students a decade from now but not before they bully (politely known as "lobbying") Congress into creating a host ridiculous old-industry protectionist laws that amount to life support for an end-stage terminal cancer patient who is in a coma after a hideous rollover accident in which in the head was severed from the body."

Putting on my business hat, I'm sympathetic about the bewildering changes that netspace has caused to the content-creation/content-delivery/content-consumption industries. (Good) content is expensive. Access tech into netspace is expensive. Having everything converged into a $0.00 commodity marketplace suxxor. But walls are going to net nuthin' because, in netspace, someone will always be willing to offer "it" - whatever "it" is - for less, and using Congress as a replacement for innovation is laughably sad. So... of course "...tablets are probably going to become cheap, near-commodity items." Remove the word "probably" and I won't be tempted to call you Capt. Obvious. And yes, Frank Pearce, it is tough to compete against free.

Let yourself go to the Double-Rainbow moment.

++vn